While speculation is already underway about which films will ostensibly launch their awards campaigns during the upcoming fall film festivals, here’s something worth remembering: the last four Best Picture winners all, quite notably, premiered before a fall festival run.
In other words, audiences may have already seen the next film that will win big at the Oscars.
Taking a look at the current crop of wide releases, recency bias has already put “F1: The Movie” on many a Best Picture prediction lists, given its warm critical response mixed with it slightly outperforming opening weekend box office expectations. The Apple Studios release comes from the same filmmaking team behind “Top Gun: Maverick,” leading to many comparisons between the two films.
But that may ultimately be to the film’s detriment, as the Tom Cruise-led legacy sequel set a very high bar. Still, there is definitely a road for the racing movie to, at the very least, also pick up a Best Sound nomination. Receiving Best Visual Effects and Best Film Editing nominations like its predecessor are on the table as well, should the film pick up enough steam to stay in the awards conversation through the rest of the summer. And though the soundtrack does not have any cuts memorable enough to warrant Best Original Song buzz, Hans Zimmer is, as always, in the mix for Best Original Score.
However, the real craft category that may prove to be a more viable contender is Best Cinematography. The way in which director Joseph Kosinski and cinematographer Claudio Miranda capture racing is unprecedented (plus Oscar winner Miranda not making the cut for “Top Gun: Maverick” in 2023 was widely seen as a huge snub.)
While “F1: The Movie” is another success that should bring forth more films using existing IP to tell an original story, it is so far not on track toward being a true box office phenomenon like “Barbie,” so a Best Picture nomination is not as inevitable. But, never say never when a film has Apple Studios as its backer. Its Best Picture win for “CODA” remains a remarkable feat, but upcoming films from Spike Lee and Paul Greengrass are likely to be more of a priority for the streamer in the coming awards season.
Sony Pictures release “28 Years Later” is of a similar ilk, but comes from an even more impressive pedigree. Its helmer Danny Boyle has already won the Oscar for Best Director for “Slumdog Millionaire,” and writer Alex Garland has been nominated for Best Original Screenplay before, and has since gone on to direct Oscar-winning films like “Ex Machina.” Couple that with “28 Years Later” being another well-reviewed, well-attended legacy sequel, and we have another blockbuster with moderate Best Picture buzz.
Several horror films from last year received Oscar nominations, which bodes well for the zombie film’s awards chances, especially in craft races like Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design, and Best Visual Effects.
If there is an element of the film that could prevent it from contending in the above the line categories, it is that “28 Years Later” has already been announced as the first film in an upcoming trilogy. As “Dune” has shown, when there are more films yet to come, there is not as much incentive to award the initial chapter.
“28 Years Later” is also a Sony Pictures film, which has not been much of an Oscar contender as of late (Sony Pictures Classics excluded), and the studio could be looking more closely at Darren Aronofsky’s “Caught Stealing” and Kogonada’s “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” as its Oscar plays when the pair of films are released in the fall.
Ending on a more optimistic note, the one blockbuster so far this year that actually has a shot at a Best Picture nomination is Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.” Still, those chances still depend on how much its studio, Warner Bros. Pictures, will get behind it.
Three out of four of the “Black Panther” director’s previous films were nominated for Oscars, yet his only two Academy Award nominations have been for producing “Judas and the Black Messiah” and co-writing an original song for “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” That he was able to shepherd an original film that maintained his auteur’s vision, while also encouraging more respect for genre filmmaking and interest in screening formats, is why he may finally secure Best Director and Best Original Screenplay nominations.
“Sinners” getting any acting nominations will prove to be somewhat of a harder road, though Michael B. Jordan successfully playing twins (and being a key producer on the project), makes for a strong Best Actor campaign. Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku also give memorable performances, with the latter already having been a Best Supporting Actress nominee before, but the pair would have to count on both not splitting votes and not being overshadowed by other performances that are on the way (for example, Cannes Grand Prix winner “Sentimental Value” boasts acclaimed supporting performances from both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas).
Where the film truly shines is below the line, even being a great candidate for the new Best Casting Oscar, as it has an inspired mix of veterans like Delroy Lindo alongside newcomers like Miles Caton. But its absolute best shots are for Best Original Score and Best Original Song, which both involve two-time Oscar winner Ludwig Göransson. Even just considering the impact of its centerpiece musical montage, there is nothing in the film release pipeline that looks like it could unseat “Sinners” in those two categories, especially since the film is getting a re-release in October, during prime awards campaign time.
The part that gets tricky for “Sinners” is true of all the films vying for awards: Studios are really only good at making one bid for Best Picture. The past five years have seen only one studio see more than one of their films make the cut. Given WB chiefs’ Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy’s redemption story this spring, where they were on the verge of being fired right before releasing two of the three current highest-grossing films of the year, plus their standing in the Academy (Abdy is currently on the Board of Governors,) might prime Oscar voters to not be as strict with spreading the wealth.
The make or break moment for Warners? If Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” is a success. The “Licorice Pizza” filmmaker has had an even longer streak than Coogler of not winning an Oscar, though most of his nine films have received nominations.
It is still unclear whether or not the film, which stars Oscar winner Leonardo DiCaprio, will get a showy festival premiere that would give it that extra awards juice, but even if it only gets critical praise and not so much box office success, it would still likely put “Sinners” on more of a backburner, right next to Bong Joon Ho’s “Mickey 17.”
Yes, there should be room for both, but if Warner Bros. Pictures has to double down and say they just have the highest-grossing original film of the year in “Sinners” and finally got Anderson an Oscar with “One Battle After Another,” that is still two big wins for the recuperating studio.