History doesn’t move in a straight line—it spirals in recurring cycles of growth, awakening, unraveling, and crisis. This fascinating pattern, observed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, suggests that generational dynamics shape societal evolution in predictable ways. Their Strauss-Howe generational theory reveals how roughly every 80-100 years—a span the ancients called a “saeculum“—societies pass through four distinct eras that mirror the seasons of nature .
This is of interest to filmmakers (and storytellers). This information helps you to decide what types of stories will find an audience. You can also use this tool to decide what genre of story you should tell.
The Four Turnings: History’s Seasonal Rhythm
At the heart of this theory lies the concept of four recurring “turnings” that form a complete historical cycle:
1. The High (First Turning):
Like spring, this period follows a crisis and is characterised by strong institutions, social cohesion, and collective optimism. The post-WWII era (1946-1963) exemplifies this phase, where society focused on building infrastructure, raising families, and maintaining order .
2. The Awakening (Second Turning):
Comparable to summer, this era sees rebellion against institutional authority as younger generations seek spiritual fulfilment. The Consciousness Revolution of the 1960s-1980s, with its counterculture movements and focus on personal liberation, typifies this turning .
3. The Unraveling (Third Turning):
Mirroring autumn, this phase features increasing individualism, weakening social bonds, and institutional decay. The late 20th century Culture Wars and economic volatility (1984-2008) demonstrate this period’s characteristics .
4. The Crisis (Fourth Turning):
The winter of the cycle brings societal upheaval that destroys old systems and creates new ones. Historical examples include the American Revolution, Civil War, and Great Depression/WWII. According to the theory, we’re currently in a Fourth Turning that began around 2008 and may last until the early 2030s .
Generational Archetypes: The Drivers of Change
These historical turnings interact with four generational archetypes that repeat in sequence:
– Prophets (e.g., Baby Boomers):
|Born after a crisis, they challenge institutions during Awakenings with idealistic visions .
– Nomads (e.g., Generation X):
Raised during Awakenings, they become pragmatic leaders during Crises .
– Heroes (e.g., Millennials):
Nurtured during Unravelings, they unite to rebuild society during Crises .
– Artists (e.g., Gen Z):
Protected during Crises, they bring nuance and sensitivity to the subsequent High .
This repeating pattern explains why history appears to rhyme—each generation reacts to the world shaped by previous generations, creating predictable dynamics .
Our Current Crossroads: A Time of Crisis and Renewal
Today’s polarised political climate, institutional distrust, and global tensions align with Fourth Turning predictions. Past Crises have typically involved either civil conflict or world war, followed by societal rebirth . While unsettling, this perspective offers hope—history suggests that after winter comes spring, and after crisis comes renewal.
As Strauss and Howe noted: “Winter comes before the spring, but spring always follows winter” . By understanding these cycles, we can better navigate our challenging times with wisdom drawn from history’s recurring patterns.
The Eternal Cycle: Generational Turnings and the Rise and Fall of Societies
History moves in grand patterns that transcend centuries—not just through generational turnings, but through the fundamental stages of social organization. When we combine William Strauss and Neil Howe’s generational theory with the universal societal stages of Wilderness, Village, City, and Oppressive City, we see an even deeper rhythm to human civilisation.
The Four Social Stages: Civilisation’s Lifecycle
Civilisations pass through 4 distinct stages. Choosing the social stage will also let you know what type of hero is the main character
1. Wilderness (Frontier Era)
– Characteristics:
Decentralised tribes, survival focus, high personal freedom but low security
– Generational Parallel:
Corresponds to the Crisis (4th Turning) when old systems collapse
– Example:
Post-Roman Europe (500-800 AD), American frontier (1800s)
2. Village (Community Growth)
– Characteristics:
Tight-knit communities, shared values, emerging institutions
– Generational Parallel:
The High (1st Turning) of stability and rebuilding
– Example:
Medieval towns (1100s), 1850’s American villages, 1950s suburban America
3. City (Complex Society)
– Characteristics:
Specialisation, wealth accumulation, cultural flourishing , implementation of rules ie traffic, weights and measures
Social awareness – education and healthcare
– Generational Parallel:
Awakening (2nd Turning) of individualism and creativity
– Example:
Renaissance Florence, 1960s-90s Western world
4. Oppressive City (Late-Stage Civilization)
– Characteristics:
Bureaucratic overload, inequality, loss of meaning
– Generational Parallel:
Unraveling (3rd Turning) before crisis hits
– Example:
Rome before fall, Western nations today
The Complete Cycle in Action
American Example:
– Wilderness:
Revolutionary period (1770s) – crisis creates new order
– Village:
Early Republic (1800-1820s) – communal rebuilding
– City:
Industrial expansion (1870s-1920s) – wealth and complexity
– Oppressive City:
Roaring 20s excess – leads to Great Depression reset
Roman Example:
– Wilderness:
Republic founding (509 BC)
– Village:
Early Republic virtues
– City:
Imperial expansion (1st-2nd century AD)
– Oppressive City:
Late Empire decay (3rd-5th century)
Why This Matters Today
We currently stand at the convergence point:
– In the generational cycle
We’re in a Fourth Turning (crisis era since ~2008)
– In the social stage cycle
Western societies show classic Oppressive City symptoms: institutional distrust, elite isolation, cultural exhaustion
History suggests these dual cycles will resolve together—through what Strauss and Howe called “the great wheel of time.” The crisis will burn away the oppressive systems, returning society temporarily to a wilderness state from which new villages (and eventually new cities) can emerge.
The hopeful pattern: Every “Oppressive City” contains the seeds of its own renewal. From Rome’s fall came medieval communes. From WWII’s ashes came the UN and global cooperation. The wheel turns, but each revolution lifts humanity slightly higher.
As the saying goes: “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” The cycles continue—but conscious understanding may help us break the spiral.
The 80-100 Year Societal Cycle: Patterns That Predict Historical Turning Points
History doesn’t move in a straight line but rather in recurring cycles that scholars have observed across civilizations. One of the most compelling theories about these patterns comes from historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, who identified an approximately 80-100 year cycle they call the “saeculum” – roughly the length of a long human life . This cycle contains four distinct generational eras or “turnings” that societies consistently pass through, culminating in a major crisis period that reshapes the social order .
The Four Turnings: History’s Seasonal Rhythm
1. The High (First Turning)
Following a crisis, societies enter a period of strong institutions and collective purpose. This postwar boom era is characterized by:
- Confidence in public institutions and social cohesion
- Economic prosperity and infrastructure building
- Cultural conformity and technological advancement
Examples: Post-WWII America (1946-1963), Early American Republic after Revolution
2. The Awakening (Second Turning)
About 20-25 years after the High, younger generations rebel against institutional authority:
- Spiritual upheavals and focus on personal liberation
- Challenge to social norms and established values
- Decline in institutional trust and rise of individualism
Examples: 1960s counterculture, 19th century Transcendentalist movement
3. The Unraveling (Third Turning)
As Awakening values take hold, social fragmentation increases:
- Heightened individualism at expense of community
- Political polarisation and culture wars
- Institutional decay and “kicking the can down the road” governance
Examples: Roaring Twenties, 1980s-2000s culture wars
4. The Crisis (Fourth Turning)
The winter of the cycle brings societal transformation:
- Institutional breakdown and existential threats
- Potential for war, revolution or economic collapse
- Eventual rebirth of new social order
Examples: American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression/WWII
Generational Archetypes That Drive the Cycle
These historical turnings interact with four repeating generational archetypes :
1. Prophets (e.g., Baby Boomers):
Idealistic, born after crisis, lead Awakenings
2. Nomads (e.g., Gen X):
Pragmatic, raised during Awakenings, lead during Crises
3. Heroes (e.g., Millennials):
Community-oriented, raised during Unravelings, rebuild after Crises
4. Artists (e.g., Gen Z):
Adaptive, protected during Crises, bring nuance to subsequent Highs
Each generation’s collective personality forms in response to the turning they experience in childhood, then shapes society when they reach midlife leadership positions .
Historical Evidence of the 80-100 Year Pattern
American history shows remarkably consistent spacing of major crises :
- American Revolution (1770s)
- Civil War (1860s)
- Great Depression/WWII (1930s-40s)
- Current Crisis (began ~2008 with 9/11)
Each of these crisis periods was followed by roughly 80-100 years of relative stability before the next major upheaval . The pattern holds across different civilizations as well, suggesting it may reflect fundamental human social dynamics rather than being unique to America .
Why the Cycle Repeats
Several key mechanisms drive this cyclical pattern :
1. Generational Forgetting:
Lessons from the last crisis fade as those who lived through it die off
We see this with parallels between Hitler and the Jewish pogroms, and the Israeli purging of Gaza
2. Institutional Rigidity:
Successful systems become inflexible and fail to adapt to new challenges
3. Social Mood Shifts:
Collective psychology swings between community orientation and individualism
4. Technological Disruption:
New technologies create social changes that institutions can’t absorb
As Neil Howe explains: “History shapes generations young, but generations as they get older shape history. It’s a complete circle of life” .
Current Position in the Cycle
Evidence suggests we entered a Fourth Turning around 2008, marked by :
- Financial crisis and Great Recession
- Political polarisation and institutional distrust
- Global pandemic (COVID-19)
- Rising geopolitical tensions
If the pattern holds, this crisis period should climax in the early 2030s before giving way to a new High . While the specific outcomes are unpredictable, the cyclical nature of history suggests we are in a period of necessary transformation that will reshape society for decades to come .
Understanding these patterns doesn’t allow us to predict exact events, but provides valuable perspective on the types of challenges we’re likely to face and how previous societies have navigated similar transitions . As with past Fourth Turnings, the current crisis contains both grave dangers and opportunities for renewal .
The movie, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) illustrates a generational turning point—specifically, the end of an era marked by the closing of the American frontier and the transition from the Wild West to modernity. While it doesn’t directly align with Strauss and Howe’s four-turnings model (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis), it captures a societal shift that mirrors the themes of a Fourth Turning—a time of crisis, transformation, and the collapse of an old order.
Key Themes Reflecting a Turning Point:
1. The End of the Outlaw Era
The film portrays Butch and Sundance as the last of a dying breed, hunted by a relentless, industrialized posse (representing the encroachment of modern law and corporate power) .
Their flight to Bolivia symbolizes the impossibility of sustaining their way of life in a rapidly modernizing America .
2. Resistance to Institutional Authority
The duo’s struggle against the railroad tycoon E.H. Harriman and the Pinkerton-detective-led posse reflects a clash between individualism and institutional control, a hallmark of crisis periods .
3. Failed Attempt to “Go Straight”
Their brief attempt at legitimacy (working as payroll guards) ends in violence, underscoring the irreversibility of societal change—another Fourth Turning theme where old systems collapse, and adaptation is forced .
4. Cultural Nostalgia vs. Progress
The sepia-toned opening and freeze-frame ending immortalise them as legends, reinforcing the idea that their time has passed—a metaphor for the death of the frontier spirit in the face of industrialisation .
Parallel to the 1960s Context
The film’s release in 1969 resonated with audiences experiencing their own societal crisis (Vietnam War, civil unrest, counterculture), mirroring Butch and Sundance’s struggle against an unstoppable system . The movie’s blend of humor and tragedy reflects the Awakening-to-Crisis transition—a generation questioning authority but ultimately facing collapse.
In summary, Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid embodies a historical inflection point, akin to a Fourth Turning, where an old way of life dies, and a new order emerges—whether the characters (or the 1960s audience) are ready for it or not.
Why mentorship is important
In the early ’90’s I stumbled upon LA based Jon Truby. I financed 2 dozen of his trips to London to lecture on his story ideas.He is the author of The Anatomy of Stor which indeed identifies four fundamental social stages that shape both storytelling and real-world societal evolution. These stages reflect how civilizations—and compelling narratives—progress through distinct phases of organization, power, and conflict. Here’s how Truby’s framework maps to historical patterns:
Truby’s Four Social Stages
I met John Truby mid 1990’s and was so impressed with his work that I financed some two dozen trips tip London to lecture to screenwriters and filmmakers eager to break into the film industry.
Truby’s i9nsights are as relevant today as they were three decades ago. His book Anatomy of Story is still one of the most neglected and underrated screenwriting books out there.
Here is his paradigm: (Applied to both fictional worlds and real societies)
1. Wilderness (Tribal/Anarchic Stage) – Characteristics:
- No centralised authority |Survival-based morality (might makes right)
- Fluid alliances and constant low-level conflict
Story Examples: The Revenant (frontier justice), Mad Max: Fury Road
Historical Parallel:
Post-Roman Europe, American frontier (1800s)
2. Village (Communal Stage)
Characteristics:
- Shared values and informal leadership
- Rules enforced through social pressure, not institutions
- Strong identity but vulnerable to external threats
Story examples
Shane (homesteaders vs. ranchers), The Crucible
Historical Parallel:
Medieval towns, Puritan colonies
3. City (Institutional Stage)
Characteristics:
- Formal laws and hierarchies (kings, governments, corporations)
- Specialisation (soldiers, merchants, clergy)
- Stability breeds corruption over time
Story Examples:
The Godfather (organised crime as shadow government), Game of Thrones
Historical Parallel:
Renaissance city-states, Gilded Age America
4. Oppressive City (Decadent Stage)
Characteristics:
- Institutions become self-serving and extractive
- Elite detachment from common people
- Cultural decay precedes collapse or revolution
Story Example: The Hunger Games (Capitol vs. districts), Blade Runner
Historical Parallel:
Late-stage Rome, pre-Revolutionary France
How These Stages Mirror Strauss & Howe’s Turnings
These stages align loosely with generational theory’s cyclical patterns:
Wilderness – Crisis (4th Turning):
Chaos forces rebirth (e.g., post-WWII rebuilding)
Village – High (1st Turning):
Stability and community (1950s America)
City – Awakening/Unraveling (2nd/3rd Turnings):
Complexity leads to individualism/corruption
Oppressive City – Late Unraveling/Crisis:
Institutional failure demands reckoning
Why This Matters
Great stories expose the fault lines between stages:
– Butch Cassidy
shows Wilderness (outlaws) vs. City (railroads/Pinkertons)
– Star Wars
pits Village (Rebels) against Oppressive City (Empire)
In reality, societies oscillate between these stages—often violently. Recognising where we are (e.g., modern late-stage “Oppressive City” traits like bureaucratic bloat and elite alienation) helps predict coming turning points.
Every main character’s journey is really a society’s journey—from chaos to order, or from rotten order to necessary chaos. The cycle continues.
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Remember, every generation of filmmakers has faced its own set of challenges. What matters isn’t the obstacles in your path, but how you choose to overcome them.
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